👀 Ceasefire Bounce: S&P +3%, CPI Hits 3.3%, and Goldman Loads Up on $SG at $5.69

Good afternoon and happy Sunday! Here is a quick market rundown and an ‘inside’ peek behind the curtains of what C-Level Execs, Wall St. Hedge Fund Gurus, and politicians are trading right now…!

📊 Market Recap — Week Ending April 10, 2026

 📊 MARKET PERFORMANCE

All three major averages posted their second consecutive weekly gain, powered almost entirely by geopolitical relief. The S&P closed out Friday slightly in the red but the weekly tape tells the real story: the index is now up roughly 3% over the past two weeks as the Iran ceasefire narrative took hold. The Dow turned positive for 2026 on Thursday for the first time since the war began.

Worth noting: the Nasdaq’s 4% weekly gain outpaced the Dow’s 3% again — the same split we saw last week. Tech is leading this bounce, which is consistent with a risk-on, rates-staying-put environment. But the equal-weight S&P continues to lag its cap-weighted counterpart, suggesting this rally is still running on a narrow set of large-cap names rather than broad market participation.

  ⚡ KEY DRIVERS

 🏺 The Dominant Macro Theme: Strait of Hormuz Holds (For Now)

The week’s entire narrative was written by a two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran brokered in part through Pakistan’s diplomatic intervention. Iran partially reopened the Strait of Hormuz, which unleashed a relief rally across equities and crushed early-week volatility. The Dow surged over 1,300 points on Wednesday alone as markets digested the deal.

The fragility here can’t be overstated. This is a two-week window, not a peace treaty. WTI crude settled Friday near $97.87 a barrel — down from $112 earlier in the week but still elevated. Goldman Sachs projects Brent could average over $100/barrel through 2026 if the Strait doesn’t stay open. The market is pricing relief, not resolution.

🏦 Fed & Rates: Core CPI Gives Powell His Cover

Friday’s March CPI print was the headline number everyone expected: +0.9% for the month, putting the annual rate at 3.3% — the highest since April 2024, and almost entirely driven by a 10.9% surge in energy costs. The market barely flinched.

Why? Core CPI — stripping out food and energy — came in at just +0.2% for the month and +2.6% annually, both slightly below forecast. That gives the Fed exactly the political cover it needs to hold rates and call the spike “transitory.” The Fed meets April 28-29 with rates currently at 3.5-3.75%. Markets are pricing essentially zero chance of a cut before year-end, but the door remains propped open by one hinge: core inflation holding below 3%.

One rate hike was penciled in for 2026 at the March meeting. That’s now firmly off the table barring a second shock. For now, Powell stays in “wait and see” mode with an energy-driven inflation excuse in his back pocket.

✈️ Sector Story: Energy Giveth, Transports Taketh Away

Energy was the clear sector winner of the week as oil stayed elevated even with the ceasefire. But the more interesting story was in transports and travel. Carnival surged 10% Wednesday on the Hormuz reopening news — a reminder of how directly the cruise and shipping industry had been punished by the closure. United Airlines jumped over 9.5% the same day. Comfort Systems and GE Aerospace were also top performers.

On the losing side, Arm Holdings dropped nearly 6% mid-week after a Morgan Stanley downgrade — a signal that AI hardware valuations remain sensitive to analyst re-ratings even in a risk-on week. Consumer sentiment data out Friday showed a 20% plunge in one-year business conditions expectations and an 11% drop in personal finance assessments. The consumer is watching gas prices and getting nervous about asset values.

🌍 Geopolitical: Pakistan’s Unlikely Cameo

If you told anyone at the start of 2026 that Pakistan’s prime minister would be the key broker in a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal, they’d have looked at you sideways. And yet. Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif asked Trump on Tuesday to delay an attack deadline by two weeks and asked Iran to open the Strait as a goodwill gesture. By Wednesday, the deal was done.

This is worth tracking closely. The ceasefire has a hard expiration in roughly two weeks from this writing. Whether it holds — or whether we get a re-escalation, a new attack threat, or actual diplomatic progress — will define the next leg of this market. Netanyahu’s agreement to open direct negotiations with Lebanon late Thursday added another de-escalation layer. But these are optics until they’re structures. Don’t bet the house on a ribbon being tied.

🥗 Insider Spotlight: Goldman Sachs Loads the Boat on Sweetgreen (SG)

On April 7th — the same day markets were whipsawing on ceasefire headlines — Goldman Sachs filed a Form 4 showing it purchased 594,553 shares of Sweetgreen (NYSE: SG) at an average price of $5.69, for a total transaction of roughly $3.38 million. That brought Goldman’s total stake to 11.9 million shares valued at approximately $67.7 million.

Goldman clarified the purchase was executed in its capacity as a market maker. Importantly, the firm also disclosed it ceased to be a greater-than-10% beneficial owner of SG’s Class A Common Stock on April 8th — so this is a position that is being actively managed, not built quietly. SG shares were trading around $6.11 by end of week, up roughly 7% from Goldman’s average entry.

The broader insider picture at SG is constructive: co-founder Nicolas Jammet added 4,428 shares at $5.71 in early March — a 24% increase in his personal position. With Q1 2026 earnings due May 7th and the stock near 52-week lows (the 52-week high is $45.12), someone is deciding that $5-6 is where you put capital to work in a fast-casual brand that’s gone from Wall Street darling to heavily discounted. Whether the thesis is right is a separate question. But the activity is notable.

🎯 KEY TAKEAWAYS

 • 🛢️ Oil stays elevated even with a ceasefire deal — WTI near $98 on a ‘relief’ week tells you the market isn’t buying a permanent resolution.

• 📈 The Nasdaq’s second straight week of outperformance suggests the tech bid is back — but check equal-weight before calling it a broad bull run.

• 💵 Core CPI at 2.6% is the Fed’s permission slip to stay on hold through year-end without the market blowing up at them.

• ⏳ The ceasefire clock is ticking. Two weeks is not a resolution. Position accordingly — energy vol could spike hard if talks collapse.

• 🏠 The housing market is quietly deteriorating: contract signings down 2.4% YoY and new listings down 2.6% — spring buying season is not materializing.

• 🥗 When Goldman Sachs is buying a $6 salad stock at 52-week lows and a co-founder is adding to his personal position — at minimum, that’s a name worth having on your watchlist into May 7th earnings.

🔭 WHAT WE’RE WATCHING NEXT WEEK

 📅 April 28-29: FOMC Meeting — The Rate Decision That’s Already Made

The Fed meets in just under three weeks and the market has essentially pre-decided this one: hold. But the language in the statement and Powell’s press conference will matter. Any shift toward acknowledging the energy-driven inflation spike as ‘persistent’ rather than ‘transitory’ would be a hawkish signal. Watch the dot plot commentary closely. A two-rate-cut median for 2026 gets revised to one — or zero — and the bond market reprices.

🛢️ Ceasefire Expiry Window: Oil’s Binary Setup

The Pakistan-brokered Iran ceasefire is a two-week deal. That puts the expiry window roughly in the April 21-24 range. If Iran formally extends talks or a longer agreement is announced, WTI crude likely drops back toward the $80s and the inflation overhang partially lifts. If the deal collapses — especially if the Strait closes again — expect a snap-back in crude toward $110+ and a market selloff that erases this week’s gains in a day. This is the single biggest binary for the market right now.

💹 S&P 6,800 Level: Holding or Failing?

The S&P closed Friday at 6,816 — just above the 6,800 level that has been a key reference point during this bounce. The index is now up 3%+ on the week but has been chopping in the upper 6,700s to low 6,800s for several sessions. A clean hold above 6,800 into next week sets up a test of the 200-day moving average. A failure below it, especially on renewed geopolitical noise, puts 6,600 back in play quickly.

📰 Earnings Season Ramp: Big Banks Kick Off

Q1 earnings season gets underway this coming week with JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citi, and other major financials reporting. Given the macro backdrop — elevated rates, Iran war uncertainty, and rising energy costs — guidance commentary will matter more than the actual numbers. Watch for any language around credit quality and loan demand. If the banks sound cautious, the market will take it seriously.

🥗 Insider Spotlight: Sweetgreen (SG) — May 7th Earnings Setup

Goldman Sachs filed on April 7th showing a $3.38M purchase of SG shares at $5.69 average. The stock ended the week at $6.11. Q1 2026 earnings are scheduled for May 7th after the close — giving this insider buy a roughly four-week runway before the catalyst.

SG is down roughly 86% from its 52-week high. The company launched Wraps in February 2026, expanding beyond its salad-only model. Co-founder Nicolas Jammet’s personal buy in March at $5.71 — a 24% increase in his stake — adds a second data point to the cluster. Goldman’s market-maker status complicates the pure insider read, but the direction of the activity (buying, not selling) near multi-year lows is the signal worth tracking. We’re watching $6.50 as the first level to confirm follow-through into earnings.

Insider spotlight of the week…#SG

^{Here is a snapshot of last week’s recent insider activity…}

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