👀 $102 Crude, Powell's Final Bow, and the Mag 7 All Beat — Nasdaq Clears 25,000

Good afternoon and happy Sunday! Here is a quick market rundown and an 'inside' peek behind the curtains of what C-Level Execs, Wall St. Hedge Fund Gurus, and politicians are trading right now…!

📊 Market Recap — Week Ending May 1, 2026

The bulls closed out the first month of May with records across the tape — and delivered April's best monthly performance in years in the process. The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,230.12, up 0.29% on the day and extending its streak of all-time closing highs. The Nasdaq Composite settled at 25,114.44 — crossing 25,000 for the first time in history and posting a record close powered by Apple's blowout quarter. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 49,499.27, slipping 152 points on the day as energy names sold off on Iran peace-deal speculation. It tested 50,000 intraday before pulling back. Story of the week.

One divergence worth noting: the Nasdaq's 1.5% weekly gain was almost entirely driven by the hyperscaler earnings wave and Apple's Thursday print. Strip out the Magnificent Seven and the broad market was essentially flat on the week. Equal-weight hasn't kept pace — this is still a very top-heavy tape. The S&P 500 is now up approximately 11.5% YTD. The Nasdaq is up roughly 14%. The Dow is lagging, up around 3.5%. The gap between tech and everything else has rarely been wider this deep into a year.

🔑 Key Drivers

💡 The AI Earnings Gauntlet — A Clean Sweep The biggest 48 hours of the earnings season delivered. Alphabet's consolidated revenues increased 22% to $109.9 billion — its 11th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth — with Google Cloud growing 63% to $20 billion. Meta's net income climbed to $26.8 billion, or $10.44 a share, and the company raised its full-year capex guidance to $125–$145 billion from $115–$135 billion. Microsoft reported revenue up 18% to roughly $83 billion, with cloud revenue accounting for $54.5 billion — marking 29% sectoral growth. AWS sales were up 28% to more than $37.5 billion, its fastest growth in 15 quarters. All four companies guided for increased capital expenditures. The collective capex commitments from the four hyperscalers are stacking up toward $600 billion for 2026 — all of it flowing into AI infrastructure. The trade is intact.

📱 Apple's Best March Quarter Ever The headline hyperscalers set the table, but Apple closed the week. Apple posted revenue of $111.2 billion for its fiscal second quarter — up 17% from a year earlier and a record for the March period. Diluted EPS came in at $2.01, up 22% year over year, beating the $1.95 analyst estimate. iPhone revenue was $56.99 billion, a March quarter record. Services revenue hit an all-time high of $30.98 billion. Apple guided Q3 revenue growth of 14% to 17%, blowing past the 9.5% Wall Street estimate. Apple also announced a $100 billion additional buyback authorization and a 4% dividend increase. The stock gained more than 3% Friday. The earnings call was the first since Cook announced he will step down as CEO on September 1, with hardware engineering chief John Ternus succeeding him. Cook's last act: his best quarter.

🏛️ Powell's Last Stand — A Divided Fed Hands Off Wednesday was the most consequential Fed day in years. In what was Chair Jerome Powell's final meeting at the helm, the FOMC voted 8-4 to hold the benchmark funds rate in a range between 3.5%–3.75% — but the four dissents were the real story. Three dissenters (Hammack, Kashkari, Logan) voted against inclusion of an easing bias in the statement, while one (Miran) dissented in favor of an immediate cut. Powell confirmed he will step aside as chair but remain on the Fed's board, citing the ongoing DOJ investigation. "I'm waiting for the investigation to be well and truly over with finality and transparency," he said. The same day, the Senate Banking Committee approved Kevin Warsh's nomination 13-11 on a strict party-line vote — the first fully partisan committee vote on a Fed chair nominee in history. The full Senate vote is expected May 11, while Powell's term as chair ends May 15. Warsh is in. The era of Powell-style press-conference-after-every-meeting forward guidance is ending. The bond market hasn't fully priced what that means yet.

🛢️ $102 Crude — Iran Counter-Proposal Goes Nowhere Oil was the week's wild card. WTI finished Friday at $101.94 per barrel after a whipsaw session. Oil prices fell 3% Friday after Iran sent an updated peace proposal to mediators in Pakistan, raising hopes a settlement was still possible. But President Trump said he was not satisfied with the offer. "Iran wants to make a deal, but I'm not satisfied with it," Trump told reporters. Tehran has refused to reopen the Strait of Hormuz unless the U.S. lifts its blockade of Iranian ports. The Strait has been largely blocked since February 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched their air campaign against Iran. The IRGC has issued warnings, boarded and attacked merchant ships, and laid sea mines in the strait. Goldman Sachs raised its Brent forecast to $90 by late 2026 (previously $80), noting global inventories are drawing at a record pace of 11–12 million barrels per day in April. The peace deal is not imminent. Oil stays bid.

📉 Q1 GDP Missed — AI Saved the Quarter The advance Q1 GDP estimate landed Thursday and it was softer than expected — growth came in at approximately 1.2% annualized, below the 1.8% consensus. The headline miss was driven almost entirely by a collapse in consumer spending, which slowed sharply as energy costs hit household budgets. The counterweight: AI investment carried U.S. GDP in the first quarter per the latest data, offsetting signs of slowing private consumption. Business investment in AI infrastructure — the hyperscaler capex being reported this week — is genuinely showing up in the national accounts. The consumer is deteriorating. Business AI spending is propping up growth. That divergence is the most important macro tension in the market right now.

🔍 The Insider Signal of the Week — Cluster Buying in Energy Infrastructure While the market was fixated on the tech earnings parade, a cluster of insider buys was quietly hitting the tape in energy infrastructure. Multiple executives at midstream pipeline operators filed Form 4 purchases during the week — small-dollar trades individually, but the directional message is consistent: energy insiders are buying the sector at current prices. With WTI above $100 and the Strait of Hormuz situation extending the supply disruption timeline, the domestic energy infrastructure buildout thesis is getting longer-dated. These aren't momentum buys. They're conviction purchases from people with the best possible view of what energy demand and pricing looks like over the next 12–18 months. Insiders don't cluster-buy for the next week — they buy for the next year.

✅ Key Takeaways

📈 Nasdaq above 25,000 for the first time. The AI capex cycle is the driver — and this week's earnings confirmed it isn't slowing.

🏛️ Powell is gone as chair by May 15. Warsh's senate floor vote is scheduled for May 11. The Warsh Fed will be less communicative and less predictable — price that into duration.

🛢️ $102 crude with no deal in sight. Iran's counter-proposal was rejected. Trump said CENTCOM has prepared a "short and powerful" strike plan. Oil is not going back to $80 next week.

📊 Q1 GDP at 1.2% — the consumer is slowing. AI investment is literally showing up in GDP to offset it. That's both impressive and fragile.

🤖 The Magnificent Seven are collectively spending $600 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026. Every one of them beat estimates. The AI trade didn't just survive earnings season — it accelerated.

🔍 Energy infrastructure insiders are buying. When executives at pipeline companies put their own money in during a geopolitical supply shock, the signal is structural, not tactical.

🔭 What We're Watching Next Week

🏛️ Kevin Warsh Full Senate Confirmation Vote — May 11 The floor vote is the last procedural hurdle. Republicans hold a 53-seat majority, and Sen. John Fetterman has signaled he plans to vote in favor, giving Warsh bipartisan cover. Confirmation is effectively assured. What matters is what happens the moment he takes the chair. His stated agenda: fewer press conferences, less forward guidance, structural Fed reform. The bond market is going to have to reprice what Fed communication looks like when the chairman stops telegraphing every move. Watch the 10-year yield the moment the vote is called.

📊 Jobs Report — Friday, May 8 The April nonfarm payrolls number is the first major economic print under genuine Warsh-era expectations. March payrolls grew by a better-than-expected 178,000, while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3%. A strong April number complicates any rate cut narrative and reinforces the hawks' argument that the easing bias should be removed from the statement. A weak print gives Miran's dissent retroactive credibility and opens the door for cuts. Either way, Warsh's inaugural Fed communication response will set the tone for the next six months.

🕊️ Iran Negotiations — All Week The weekend came and went without a deal. Trump rejected Iran's latest counter-proposal Friday. U.S. Central Command has reportedly prepared a plan for a "short and powerful" wave of strikes on Iran if talks break down further. Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guards have threatened "long and painful" retaliation if the U.S. resumes attacks. Watch Sunday night crude futures — they're the first real-time read on where the weekend talks landed. A $5 oil move Sunday night tells you everything you need to know about Monday's open.

📱 Apple's Transition Officially Underway Cook's announcement that Ternus takes over September 1 is now the central Apple narrative heading into the back half of the year. The market shrugged this week — Apple stock was up on earnings, not down on the succession news. But watch what Ternus says publicly in the next 60–90 days. His background is hardware engineering, not operations or retail. The questions the market will eventually ask: does he share Cook's discipline on buybacks and capital returns? Does he double down on Apple Silicon and chip design independence? Does the Google Gemini/Siri partnership deepen or unwind? The transition is in progress. The answers haven't arrived yet.

🌟 Insider Spotlight — Energy Infrastructure Cluster Buy

The signal that mattered most this week didn't come from Silicon Valley. It came from the pipeline sector.

Multiple midstream energy infrastructure executives filed open-market purchases during the week ending May 1 — individual amounts ranging from $200K to $1.2M, across several companies with direct exposure to domestic crude transport and LNG export infrastructure. These were not option exercises or pre-planned 10b5-1 sales. These were executives going into the open market and buying stock with personal capital during a week when the broader market's attention was entirely elsewhere.

The context: WTI above $100, the Strait of Hormuz still functionally closed, and domestic pipeline capacity suddenly more valuable than at any point in years because Gulf Coast export routes are being rerouted and international crude flows are disrupted. These insiders aren't buying because next quarter's numbers look good. They're buying because the supply disruption is extending the structural demand case for domestic midstream infrastructure into 2027 and beyond.

The pattern is the signal. When three or more insiders in the same sector buy within the same 5-day window, the probability of a meaningful price move in the following 90 days increases materially — per multiple academic studies of Form 4 cluster activity. This is exactly that pattern.

Insider spotlight of the week…#SMC

^{Here is a snapshot of last week’s recent insider activity…}

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