👀 Nasdaq’s -5.3% October, a 10-2 Fed Hold, and 3 Million BPRE Shares Bought

Good afternoon and happy Sunday! Let’s go through the damage first, then get to the one insider who bought straight through it.

Let's get into it.
📊 Market Performance

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,580.07, the Dow at 51,770.31 and the Nasdaq at 25,437.00. For the week, the S&P fell 0.6%, the Dow 0.9% and the Nasdaq 2%. Year to date, the S&P is up 10.7%, the Nasdaq 9.4% and the Dow 7.7%. Friday’s 1.8% drop was the S&P’s worst day since June. The S&P and Nasdaq have now fallen three weeks in a row, the longest losing streak since March, and the Nasdaq lost 5.3% in October.

The divergence to watch: the Russell 2000 gained 1.3% on the week while the Nasdaq dropped 2%. Small caps rose in the same week the AI leaders sank.

🔑 Key Drivers

🤖 The AI Bill Comes Due
Amazon became the third hyperscaler, after Alphabet and Meta, to report negative free cash flow. Alphabet was still working off its worst day in more than 20 years when Amazon and Intel added to the damage. Intel fell about 29% Friday on a soft Q4 outlook, its worst day since 1974. Earnings growth is still running near 30% this quarter, but companies are beating estimates by only 1.4%, against a 7.5% to 8% historical average. The market is no longer paying for AI spending on faith. Bitcoin also slid after a reported $6.3 billion hack of Binance.

🏦 Fed Holds, Hawks Circle
The Fed held at 3.75%–4% Wednesday on a 10-2 vote. Both dissenters, Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack, wanted a quarter-point hike. That followed a unanimous September hike, the first move up in this cycle. Nobody voted for a cut. With inflation still elevated, markets are leaning toward another hike in December, and Friday’s jobs report matters more than usual.

🛢️ Oil Back Near $118, Hormuz Back in the Headlines
Brent rose about 2.5% Friday to roughly $118, up 12% for October and at a six-month high. WTI was above $104, a tanker was reported struck in the Strait of Hormuz, and Washington again raised the prospect of renewed hostilities with Iran. A letter from Vice President Vance to Iran’s security chief had pulled prices lower on Thursday, but that relief didn’t last a session. Fourth straight monthly gain for crude, and the risk premium is still growing.

🔄 Rotation, Not Panic (Yet)
Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble were among the notable outperformers while tech sold off. On Thursday, real estate and health care were the market’s best sectors, up 2.2% and 2.4%. Money is leaving the crowded AI trade for defensives, small caps and out-of-favor income assets. That’s the backdrop for this week’s insider story.

🏢 BPRE: The Chairman Buys Every Day
Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund (NYSE: BPRE) is where the real insider action was. Director Ramin Kamfar, Bluerock’s founder and chairman, bought 109,019 shares on Oct. 26 at about $12.48 and 69,658 more on Oct. 27 at about $12.48, roughly $2.2 million for the week, lifting his reported indirect holdings to 3,069,420 shares. By our tally of the Form 4s, he has bought on every trading day since Sept. 21. That’s about 3.07 million shares at a $12.63 average, roughly $39 million. Two caveats before anyone gets carried away. The filings show the shares are bought through Bluerock Asset Management, LLC, an entity he controls, so this is the manager’s affiliate buying, not a personal brokerage account. And activist Saba Capital is preparing a proxy fight to remove the fund’s manager. A manager facing an activist has its own reasons to own more of the stock. The Form 4s don’t say why, and we only report the prints.

Why the discount is so wide: BPRE listed in December after converting from an interval fund and opened roughly 38% below its stated NAV. It still trades at a discount in the mid-40s, with a monthly distribution of $0.1371, about 12.9% annualized on the October 7 price. Some or all of that may be a return of capital. The NAV rests on appraisals of private real estate, and the market is clearly skeptical of those marks.

🎯 Key Takeaways

• 📉 Nasdaq down 5.3% in October while the Dow gained. This was a tech problem, not a market problem.

• 💸 Three hyperscalers now report negative free cash flow. The AI trade has to show returns, not just spending.

• 🏦 Two Fed votes were for a hike and none for a cut. Rate relief is off the table for now.

• 🛢️ Brent near $118 and Hormuz in the news. Energy risk isn’t priced out.

• 🔄 Small caps up, defensives bid. Leadership is rotating, so check what you actually own.

• 🕵️ 27 straight sessions of buying through BPRE’s manager affiliate. Big and persistent, but know whose money it is.

👀 What We’re Watching Next Week

🍎 Monday: Apple and Palantir After the Close
This is the next test for the AI trade. Palantir is expected to earn $0.41 per share on $2.18 billion in revenue, and options imply about an 11.65% move. AMD reports Tuesday and Arm and Qualcomm on Wednesday. After this week, a “beat and raise” may not be enough.

🗳️ Tuesday, Nov. 3: Midterm Elections
The results land in a week with the jobs report and chip earnings. Oil traders are also watching for possible U.S. strikes on Iran after the election. A binary event for sectors, plus a geopolitical overhang.

👷 Friday, Nov. 6: October Jobs Report
Consensus is about 55,000 jobs, up from 29,000 in September, with unemployment steady at 4.2%. A hot number raises December hike odds. A cold one hits the “strong economy” case the Fed is leaning on. Either way, it moves rates.

🛢️ Monday: The Brent Roll
The December contract expired Friday, and the January contract, about $4 cheaper, becomes the benchmark Monday. Monday’s quote will look lower with no news behind it. Don’t mistake the roll for relief. Traders are watching $120 on the upside and $108 on the downside.

🕵️ Insider Spotlight: BPRE (Bluerock Private Real Estate Fund)
Three things to watch. First, whether the buying streak continues: as of this writing we couldn’t find any filings covering Oct. 28–30, and Form 4s are due within two business days. Second, the November distribution announcement. October’s was announced on the 7th, and the fund has raised its payout four times since listing. Third, Saba’s 2027 proxy fight, which is the real catalyst behind the buying. Persistent buying at a discount is a signal. It isn’t a guarantee, and a discount can last longer than anyone expects.

This newsletter is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.

That's the week. See you next Sunday.

— Silas P. Insider Authority | insiderauthority.com

Insider spotlight of the week…#BPRE

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