👀 Oil Near $100, Markets in Freefall — and the Scripps Family Just Went All-In on SSP

Good afternoon and happy Sunday! Here is a quick market rundown and an ‘inside’ peek behind the curtains of what C-Level Execs, Wall St. Hedge Fund Gurus, and politicians are trading right now…!

📊 Market Recap — Week Ending March 13, 2026

Market Performance

The S&P 500 shed another 1.6% this week to close at 6,632.19 — its third consecutive weekly decline and a fresh 2026 low. The Nasdaq dropped 1.3% to 22,105.36. The Dow fell 2% to 46,558.47. The Russell 2000 is now barely clinging above 2,500 and is essentially flat on the year after entering 2026 as the market's early standout. WTI crude settled Friday at $98.71 — up 3.1% on the day and up more than 38% since the Iran conflict began. The VIX closed the week above 29, signaling that options markets are now pricing real fear, not noise.

🔑 Key Drivers & Dynamics

🛢️ 1. Oil Is the Only Story That Matters

WTI crude is closing in on $100 a barrel as the Iran conflict shows no sign of resolution. Iran's new leadership has signaled the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed — a move that, if sustained, threatens approximately 20% of global oil supply. Trump stated this week there will be no deal without unconditional surrender, removing any near-term off-ramp. Until tanker traffic resumes, oil is the variable that overrides every other data point in the market.

📉 2. The Broad Selloff Is Accelerating

Three straight weeks of losses have pushed the S&P 500 more than 6% off its February highs. Consumer discretionary, technology, and homebuilders have been hit hardest as the market reprices the dual threat of inflation reigniting and economic growth slowing. The McClellan Oscillator — which tracks advancing versus declining stocks — is hitting levels that have historically marked near-term bottoms, with the S&P 500 averaging a 6% recovery over the subsequent three months in similar setups.

💼 3. The Stagflation Cocktail Is Back

Fears of 1970s-style stagflation have been stoked as oil spikes and economic data softens simultaneously. February nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 — far below expectations and a sharp reversal from January's +126,000. With oil near $100, the Fed cannot cut rates to cushion the slowdown without risking another inflation surge. A toxic combination that historically punishes both equities and bonds at the same time.

🏦 4. The Fed Is Boxed In Ahead of Tuesday's Meeting

The March 18 Fed meeting is a near-certain hold. The real question is whether Powell signals any dovish lean given deteriorating labor data — or doubles down on caution given oil-driven inflation risk. Leading economists have revised their baseline to just one 25bps cut in 2026, likely in December — with a real possibility of zero cuts if oil remains elevated.

🔋 5 Energy Is the Only Sector With Shelter

Energy stocks were again the lone bright spot this week. XOM, CVX, and OXY all posted gains as the sector became the only real cover in an otherwise broad-based selloff. The S&P Select Energy SPDR ETF (XLE) hit a fresh 2026 high, breaking out of a long-term trading range and accelerating higher. Rotation into energy is real, it is institutional, and it is still happening.

📌 Key Takeaways

🛢️ Oil is the gating variable for everything. A sustained break above $100 — which is now just 1.3% away — changes the inflation calculus entirely and puts Fed rate cuts back in the drawer for the rest of 2026.

📉 The labor market is cracking faster than expected. The combination of February's payroll decline and 69,000 in prior-month downward revisions paints a picture of a labor market that was already softening before the oil shock hit. That's a problem for consumer spending and earnings guidance alike.

🏦 The Fed meeting on March 18 is a live catalyst. Any dovish signal near these oversold levels — especially approaching the 200-day moving average roughly 5% below current prices — could ignite a sharp relief rally. Watch the language closely.

📊 When insiders buy into a storm, that's the whole story. This week's market chaos didn't stop one founding family from making their largest open-market buying spree in years on a stock they know better than anyone alive. Read on.

👀 What We're Watching Next Week

🛢️ Crude Oil & Strait of Hormuz — This is the single most market-sensitive variable in the world right now. Any credible ceasefire or reopening headline is an instant risk-on catalyst. Watch crude daily. If $100 breaks and holds, $110 becomes the next conversation.

🏦 Fed Meeting — March 18 — Hold is fully expected. The signal in Powell's language is what the market is actually trading. A surprise dovish tilt near the 200-day moving average could set up the sharpest relief rally of the year.

📊 S&P 500 200-Day Moving Average — Sits roughly 5% below current levels. That zone is where buyers have historically stepped in. How the index behaves as it approaches those levels will tell us whether this is a buyable dip or something more structural.

⚡ VIX at 29 — Elevated volatility means elevated premium across the entire options market. For systematic income traders, this is exactly the environment high-probability options strategies were built to exploit.

📺 SSP — E.W. Scripps Company — Scripps completed the sale of its Fort Myers Fox affiliate for $40 million in proceeds earmarked directly for debt reduction while also announcing the re-acquisition of 23 ION stations for ~$54 million and a pending purchase of WTVQ in Lexington, KY. The transformation plan is moving fast. And the founding family just voted with their wallets in a major way.

Insider spotlight of the week…#SSP

^{Here is a snapshot of last week’s recent insider activity…}

Politicians

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