👀 WARSH'S FIRST FED MEETING TANKS STOCKS, ADSK INSIDERS BUY THE 52-WEEK LOW

Good afternoon and happy Sunday! Here is a quick market rundown and an 'inside' peek behind the curtains of what C-Level Execs, Wall St. Hedge Fund Gurus, and politicians are trading right now…!

📊 MARKET PERFORMANCE

📊 MARKET PERFORMANCE

The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 7,500.58, up 1.08% on the day but still digesting a brutal mid-week stumble. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished at 51,564.70, while the Nasdaq Composite ripped 1.91% higher to 26,517.93. Markets were closed Friday for Juneteenth, so Thursday's bounce is the number the week closes on. The real story isn't the weekly close — it's the round trip. Wednesday's FOMC decision sent the Dow down 507 points (-0.98%) to 51,492.55, the S&P down 1.21% to 7,420.10, and the Nasdaq down 1.34% to 26,021.66, before Thursday clawed most of it back on tech strength and optimism over the U.S.-Iran deal. Breadth told its own story this week: roughly 58% of S&P 500 stocks were trading above their 50-day moving average heading into the Fed decision — healthy, but not the kind of breadth that shrugs off a hawkish surprise without a scratch.

🦅 KEY DRIVERS

🏛️ The Warsh Fed Makes Its Hawkish Bona Fides Known

Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair did exactly what Citi's research predicted new chairs tend to do — establish inflation-fighting credibility early, even at the cost of a clean market reaction. The Fed held rates at 3.5%–3.75%, but the dot plot told the real story: the median year-end rate estimate jumped to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, implying officials now see a hike, not a cut, as the likely 2026 move. Warsh abstained from submitting his own projection, which is its own kind of statement. The 2-year yield spiked over 16 basis points to 4.216% on the news. Citi's data shows new-chair meetings average a 6 basis point selloff in the 2-year versus roughly 1 basis point for a typical FOMC meeting — Warsh's first outing blew through that average by more than 2x.

📜 A 130-Word Statement Says a Lot by Saying Little

Consistent with his long-standing criticism of the Fed's communication style, Warsh trimmed the post-meeting statement to just 130 words and stripped out any mention of an easing bias. The language landed on "expanding at a solid pace" for growth and a flat commitment to "deliver price stability" on inflation — no hedging, no forward guidance to lean on. Markets don't like a vacuum, and they filled it by pricing in a more hawkish path. Whether this is Warsh's permanent operating style or a first-meeting flex remains the open question heading into the next several FOMC dates.

💻 Tech Sells the News, Then Buys It Back

The Nasdaq's round trip this week is a tell. Wednesday's hawkish shock hit tech hardest — megacaps lead both the moves up and down lately — before Thursday's 1.91% rebound, helped along by easing geopolitical tension following progress on the U.S.-Iran framework. That kind of single-day reversal in growth names tends to happen when positioning gets stretched in both directions in the same week. Watch whether Thursday's bounce holds once next week's data flow resumes.

🛢️ Geopolitical De-Escalation Gives Risk Assets Room to Breathe

The U.S.-Iran deal progress cited as a Thursday tailwind matters beyond the single session — geopolitical risk premium has been a quiet tax on risk assets for weeks. Any durable de-escalation here is a net positive for equities and a headwind for crude, gold, and other safe-haven trades that had been bid on conflict risk. Worth tracking as a multi-week theme, not a one-day headline.

🏗️ Autodesk: The Stock Falls, the Insiders Buy

Autodesk has been one of the more painful software stories of 2026 — shares down roughly 19% on the year and hitting a 52-week low near $214 on June 11, even after the company beat on both revenue and earnings and raised full-year guidance. The drag is almost entirely about capital allocation, not execution: Autodesk's $3.6 billion all-cash acquisition of MaintainX — its largest deal ever — spooked investors worried about integration risk, deal multiple (north of 18x forward MaintainX revenue), and reduced near-term financial flexibility. Here's the part that matters for this newsletter: CFO Janesh Moorjani bought 2,500 shares on June 15 at $197.67, and CEO Andrew Anagnost bought 2,460 shares on June 16 at an estimated $498,543. Two of the company's most senior, most informed executives stepped into the open market within 24 hours of each other, right around the stock's worst levels of the year. That's not a scheduled 10b5-1 drip — that's conviction.

💰 Wall Street's Price Targets Haven't Moved

With the Stock Despite the selloff, sell-side coverage stayed broadly constructive. RBC kept an Outperform rating (trimming its target from $335 to $305), BTIG maintained a Buy with a $300 target, UBS reiterated Buy at $290, and Stifel stayed bullish citing 18.4% year-over-year revenue growth. The average analyst target near $320–330 implies Autodesk is trading at roughly a 25–30% discount to where Wall Street thinks it belongs. When the sell-side, the CEO, and the CFO are all pointing the same direction while the tape says otherwise, that's the kind of divergence worth a second look.

⭐ KEY TAKEAWAYS

🦅 Warsh's first meeting just told you everything about his style: hawkish, terse, and unwilling to soften the landing for markets.

📉 The Dow's -507 point Wednesday was the worst "Fed day" reaction under a new chair since 1994 — that's a historical marker, not just a bad afternoon.

🔄 Thursday's rebound erased most of Wednesday's damage, but round trips like this usually mean positioning, not conviction, drove the move.

🛢️ U.S.-Iran de-escalation progress is quietly bullish for risk assets and bearish for the safe-haven trade — keep watching this.

🏗️ ADSK is down ~19% YTD on deal skepticism, not execution — revenue, billings, and guidance all beat this quarter.

🎯 When the CEO and CFO both buy stock in the same 24-hour window at a 52-week low, that's the insider signal this newsletter exists to flag.

🔭 WHAT WE'RE WATCHING NEXT WEEK

📆 The Bond Market's Reaction to the New Dot Plot

The 2-year yield's 16 basis point spike on Wednesday is the first data point in what could be a longer repricing. Watch whether yields continue climbing into next week or whether Thursday's equity rebound also pulled yields back down. A 2-year sustainably above 4.25% would confirm the market is taking Warsh's hawkish signal seriously rather than treating it as a one-meeting flex.

📊 August 27: Autodesk's Next Real Test

Autodesk's fiscal Q2 FY27 report on August 27 will be the first full quarter under its reorganized direct sales structure and the first read on whether revenue tracks the back-half-loaded guidance management has set. If that print comes in clean and HSR clearance lands on schedule, both overhangs weighing on the stock lift in the same window — exactly the kind of setup informed buyers tend to position ahead of.

🌍 Whether the Iran De-Escalation Holds

Geopolitical catalysts can reverse fast. If the framework progress cited this week unwinds, expect the safe-haven bid in gold and crude to return and risk assets to give back some of Thursday's gains. Track headlines here daily, not weekly.

🔎 INSIDER SPOTLIGHT: Autodesk's Dual Executive Buy

This week's standout isn't a single trade — it's the pairing. CFO Janesh Moorjani bought 2,500 shares at $197.67 on June 15, and one day later CEO Andrew Anagnost bought 2,460 shares at roughly $202.66 ($498,543 total). Over the trailing six months, ADSK insiders have made four open-market purchases and zero sales. When the two executives with the clearest view into integration risk, billings trends, and the MaintainX deal's true economics both choose to buy into a 52-week low within a day of each other, that's about as clean an insider conviction signal as this newsletter gets to flag. The stock still has to prove the bears wrong — but the people who'd know first just told you which side they're on.

That's the week. See you next Sunday.

— Silas P. Insider Authority | insiderauthority.com

Insider spotlight of the week…#ADSK

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